After a rough week of picks, the Cleveland Browns, Miami Dolphins, and Philadelphia Eagles are some of our best bets to cover the spread this weekend.
- For NFL gamblers, it's been a rough year for sharp bettors and our picks have in turn suffered.
- Still, Week 13 presents plenty of great gambling opportunities for bettors looking to recover a bit of their bankroll.
- This week, while some home underdogs still look like they could be valuable, others are deceptive, including a tough matchup on Thursday night.
It shouldn't be mathematically possible for a person's picks to be as bad as mine has been so far this NFL season.
In a sense, my current losing streak is impressive — a statistical anomaly that will be studied by future generations. At least I will leave a legacy.
If you took my advice from a few weeks ago and began fading my picks, you're on an epic 26-12-2 run right now. Congratulations on your winnings.
That said, I think this might be the week things finally turn around for me. Cold streaks always pass, and though this has been the toughest test of my gambling meddle thus far in my young life, and an extremely public failure to boot, I am undeterred.
Also, I went dancing last night, which has, historically, helped my gambling. I don't know why. The lord works in mysterious ways.
Take a look below at our predictions for who covers the spread this weekend (* indicates home team).
LAST WEEK: 4-11
OVERALL: 68-103-5
New Orleans Saints (-7) over Dallas Cowboys*
The Saints haven't lost since Week 1, and since September just one of their eight victories has come by fewer than 10 points. The Cowboys have won three straight, but notably, none of those games were against the Saints.
Indianapolis Colts (-4) over Jacksonville Jaguars*
Despite a somewhat shaky win last week against the Dolphins, the Colts are now one of the hottest teams in the NFL, winners of five straight games and now solidly in the hunt for a playoff spot.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars have just benched Blake Bortles in favor of giving Cody Kessler the starting job. I like Kessler a good deal, but give me Andrew Luck in the head-to-head matchup.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers* (+3.5) over Carolina Panthers
The Buccaneers looked solid enough in their home win last week over the 49ers, and the Panthers are in something of a tailspin having lost three straight games that all looked like potential wins at some point in the game.
I'm far from trusting Tampa Bay and am staying away from this one with my actual gambling dollars, but if I have to pick every game, give me the home team and the points.
Atlanta Falcons* (-1.5) over Baltimore Ravens
Matt Ryan's face up there basically sums up the Falcons' season so far. Still, it's tough to discount their potential as a home team, and this will be Lamar Jackson's first road game as a starter for the Ravens.
Cleveland Browns (+5.5) over Houston Texans*
The Texans winning streak is at an impressive eight games — a franchise record that has catapulted the team to the top of the AFC South after a dismal 0-3 start. Still, if you look over the teams that Houston has beaten through their run, it's difficult to pull out a signature win.
Houston has enough to make the playoffs thanks to a few thrilling playmakers on offense and the most terrifying defense front in the league that doesn't include Khalil Mack or Aaron Donald, but Baker Mayfield is playing like a man on fire right now, and in some ways it feels like he's only starting to get loose.
Miami Dolphins* (-4) over Buffalo Bills
It feels like Ryan Tannehill might be playing for his future with the Dolphins, and with Miami still in the playoff hunt, they can't afford to drop a game to the Buffalo Bills. As long as the Dolphins can keep safeties deep enough to prevent Josh Allen from tossing up 75-yard touchdowns unopposed, they should be able to take care of business here.
New York Giants* (+4) over Chicago Bears
The Bears defense tearing through the Giants offensive line is a terrifying prospect, but I'm going to bet against Chase Daniel when given the opportunity.
Denver Broncos (-5.5) over Cincinnati Bengals*
The Broncos may secretly be the fifth or sixth best team in the NFL, and the Bengals are starting a backup quarterback and coming off an embarrassing loss to the Cleveland Browns despite employing their former coach. Denver in a rout.
Detroit Lions* (+10) over Los Angeles Rams
Double-digit home dog. I know I've gone against some of my rules, but a man has gotta have a code.
Green Bay Packers* (-14) over Arizona Cardinals
This is another game where I am tempted to take the points, but the Arizona Cardinals have not figured out a way to score this season, averaging just 14 points per game so far this season. That is the worst in the NFL.
Last week, they opened up their game against the Chargers with a 10-0 lead and still somehow found a way to lose by 35. Of course in that game, I had taken the Cardinals and the points. I learned my lesson and will not be making the same mistake twice.
Oakland Raiders* (+15) over Kansas City Chiefs
While the Raiders have also shown struggles with finding the end zone, I trust their weapons and their home crowd to help will them to get a few more points on the board.
The Chiefs score a lot but have given up over 34 points per game to opponents on the road this year. Derek Carr and the Raiders steal a late backdoor cover.
New York Jets (+8) over Tennessee Titans*
The Jets played the Patriots pretty tough last week but did not have enough to keep pace the whole game. They might not be great, but the Titans have no business being 8-point favorites over any team in the NFL right now.
Minnesota Vikings (+5.5) over New England Patriots*
I'm not sure the Patriots are all that great this year. I'm not betting this game, but this feels like too many points to spot the Vikings.
Seattle Seahawks* (-10) over San Francisco 49ers
The Seahawks need to be nearly perfect the rest of the way to secure a spot in the playoffs, and with two of their next three games against the 49ers, now is not the time to slip up. They've won two straight games but could definitely use a big win at home to get their confidence flying ahead of their postseason push.
Pittsburgh Steelers* (-3.5) over Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers are playing back-to-back road games and are coming off of a tough loss to the Broncos. Wouldn't it be just like the Chargers we've known for so long to start a late-season spiral that puts their postseason hopes in jeopardy?
Philadelphia Eagles* (-6.5) over Washington Redskins
The Eagles are my team and playing a must-win home game in primetime against a division opponent starting a backup quarterback. Go Birds.