Hurricane Florence is expected to make landfall somewhere on North Carolina's coast late Thursday evening or Friday morning, according to the National Hurricane Center.
- Hurricane Florence is predicted to make landfall on North Carolina's coast late Thursday night or early Friday morning.
- Florence could be the first Category 4 storm to hit North Carolina since Hurricane Hugo devastated the region in 1989.
- The National Hurricane Center warned on Tuesday night that it could bring "life-threatening storm surge and rainfall" to the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic states, bringing a risk of flooding.
- South Carolina's governor lifted mandatory evacuation orders for three of the state's coastal counties as the hurricane is tracking northward.
A Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of up to 130 mph is headed for North Carolina, bringing a risk of devastating floods.
Hurricane Florence is expected to make landfall somewhere on North Carolina's coast late Thursday night or early Friday morning, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The agency has issued a hurricane watch for the entire coast of South Carolina and North Carolina, up to the Virginia border.
The NHC issued a storm surge watch for those areas as well — parts of North Carolina's low-lying coast, including Cape Fear and Cape Lookout, could see be between 6 and 12 feet of storm surge.
"If you've been asked to leave, get out," Brock Long, the administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency said in an Oval Office briefing Tuesday afternoon.
President Donald Trump echoed Long's concern.
"You have to listen to your local authorities," Trump said from the Oval Office. "You have to listen and get out. Because once the storm hits, it's going to be really bad, and almost impossible to get authorities in to help."
The hurricane could inundate low-lying islands off the coast of North Carolina, like the Outer Banks and other barrier islands, according to the NHC's "cone of probability" forecast. Heavy rain may extend as far inland as Charlotte, North Carolina's largest city, though the severity will depend on the storm's track, according to The Charlotte Observer.
Read More: Here's a map of all the areas that could get hit
Changing evacuation orders
In South Carolina, Gov. Henry McMaster lifted evacuation orders for three of the state's four coastal counties earlier Tuesday, The Columbia State reported, since projections showed the hurricane tracking north.
"This is a very dangerous hurricane, and we do not want to gamble with a single life of a single South Carolinian," McMaster said at a press conference, per The State.
Some schools and most offices have been closed in Charleston, the largest city in South Carolina, according to The Post and Courier.
In North Carolina, evacuations have been ordered in Dare County, which includes the Outer Banks and Hatteras, another popular vacation spot, as well as other coastal counties, according to The Observer. The orders affect roughly 250,000 residents.
"Everyone in Dare County is encouraged to evacuate as soon as possible regardless of the established time frames," the county's emergency-management agency said Monday.
North Carolina's governor, Roy Cooper, said at a press conference that the state was in the "bull's-eye" of the hurricane, according to The Raleigh News & Observer.
Virginia's governor, Ralph Northam, issued a mandatory evacuation order for residents of the state's low-lying coastal areas as well. Those orders extend to approximately 245,000 people in Norfolk, Virginia Beach, Hampton, and the Eastern Shore. Virginia authorities dubbed this area "Zone A" — the highest priority evacuation zone.
"This is a serious storm and it's going to affect the entire state of Virginia," Northam said on Monday evening, per a local NBC affiliate.
Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan also declared a state of emergency ahead of the storm on Monday evening.
The latest Florence forecast
Florence is currently a Category 4 hurricane, meaning it has wind speeds of 130 to 156 mph. Its center was about 845 miles southeast of Cape Fear, North Carolina as of Tuesday afternoon.
"A life-threatening storm surge is now highly likely along portions of the coastlines of South Carolina and North Carolina," the National Hurricane Center said late Tuesday night, adding that a storm surge warning is in effect for the area.
Predicting hurricane paths is a difficult science, and there are still uncertainties about this storm's track. But if predictions hold, Florence could be the first Category 4 hurricane to make landfall in North Carolina. Hurricane Hugo, the last storm of a similar strength to hit the state, made landfall in South Carolina in 1989.
The NHC expects Florence's winds to strengthen as it moves west and draws energy from the warm water — the agency warned on Monday that Florence could become a Category 5 storm.
Read More: Astronauts in space just saw all 3 threatening hurricanes lurking in the Atlantic Ocean
The chart below shows the probability that an area that will see winds of at least 39 mph. The area in purple corresponds to a 90% or higher probability of experiencing those gusts.
The NHC also said the storm's effects — including rain, high winds, rip currents, and tidal surges — would most likely be felt outside the "cone of probability" and could extend hundreds of miles from the storm's center.
Heavy rains are expected
Hurricane Florence is predicted to slow over the Carolinas and Virginia, where it may dump over 20 inches on North Carolina's coast, The Washington Post reported.
Sluggish or stalled hurricanes — like Hurricane Harvey, which flooded swaths of Houston, Texas, and the Gulf Coast last year — can become even more dangerous as they stick around, pouring rain.
Read More: The 13 most important things you should do to prepare for a hurricane
These types of slow-moving hurricanes are becoming more frequent. Recent research from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration found that storms had slowed by an average of 10% over land between 1949 and 2016. Over that same period, the average global temperature rose by 0.5 degrees Celsius. (Warmer air can hold more moisture, allowing slower storms to produce heavier rainfall.)
Residents of South Carolina and North Carolina's low-lying barrier islands are preparing for the storm's onslaught.
"I don't think many of us have ever been through a Category 4," Dawn Farrow Taylor, a resident of North Carolina's Outer Banks, told The Associated Press. "And out here we're so fragile. We're just a strip of land — we're a barrier island."
Storm troubles may not end with Florence.
Tropical Storm Isaac, which is churning in the mid-Atlantic, had wind speeds of over 70 mph. Behind Isaac, Hurricane Helene has wind speeds of over 110 mph, and moving northwest at 14 mph.
Meanwhile, in the Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Olivia is heading toward Hawaii with 85 mph winds. That storm is predicted to hit the islands on Wednesday morning, according to the NHC.
Read more of Business Insider's hurricane coverage:
- We've reached the peak of Atlantic hurricane season — and three hurricanes are churning at once
- A hurricane with 130 mph winds headed for the East Coast of the US has strengthened to a Category 4 storm
- Hurricane Florence and two other hurricanes are swirling in the Atlantic — here's what they look like from space
- Astronauts in space just photographed 3 threatening hurricanes lurking in the Atlantic Ocean
- The 13 most important things you should do to prepare for a hurricane
- 'Spaghetti models' show potential paths for storms like Hurricane Florence — here's what they mean