Everything you need to know about betting the board, your eliminator pool, and the Monday night action for Week 1 of the NFL season.
The Westgate SuperContest is the biggest handicapping competition in football. Entrants pay $1,500 and pick their five best bets of the week, with the top 100 players cashing in at the end of the season.
Last year, the SuperContest brought in more than 2,700 entrants and awarded a top prize of $1.3 million. This year, I entered for the first time along with my cousin Trey and will be writing up and posting our picks here.
I have never set myself up for public embarrassment more in my life.
On Thursdays, we'll be picking every game against the spread, but this Friday column is dedicated to our true best bets of the week. Simply put, you can't always be confident in every game on the board.
In addition to our SuperContest picks, each week we will use this space to also go through:
- One lock for your eliminator pool
- One moneyline underdog to win outright
- A weekly teaser
- One Monday night bet to either increase our winning day or win back some of our losses before the end of the week
Even if you're not in the SuperContest, these picks serve as what we see as the best value bets on the board. Take a look below as we try to beat the books for Week 1 of the NFL season.
SuperContest Pick 1: Carolina Panthers (-3) over Dallas Cowboys
This play jumped off the board to me immediately, almost to a point where it felt too obvious. But simply put, I don't see a position aside from running back where the Cowboys hold an edge in this game. Maybe my Philadelphia bias is showing, but I have Dallas marked for a nightmare season of sorts.
Dak Prescott is attempting to bounce back from an off year, and most football fans can't name a receiver on his team. Meanwhile, Cam Newton has a plethora of weapons at his disposal, and is playing in the NFC South where one dropped game could spell the end of your season. Ezekiel Elliott has averaged over 100 yards rushing per game in his 25 career starts, but Carolina should be able to stack the box and keep him contained.
SuperContest Pick 2: Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) over Cleveland Browns
For years, I loved losing money on the Browns. As a contrarian bettor, Cleveland was almost always the ugliest side on the board, leading the public to bet against them again and again.
I was sure that this year would finally be the year my Browns love paid off, and then suddenly, one season of "Hard Knocks" and two crafty quarterbacks pickups later, the public was all over Cleveland as well.
This line was originally three points higher, but with the absence of Le'Veon Bell and some newfound public faith in the Browns, the spread worked its way down to where it now stands. I don't like betting against a divisional home dog in Week 1, but this is an overcorrection.
The Steelers might look like a mess behind the scenes right now, but they're still the Steelers, and the Browns are still 1-31 in their past two seasons of NFL play. I think the Browns wind up winning six or seven games this year, I just don't think this is one of them.
SuperContest Pick 3: New Orleans Saints (-9.5) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Another tough pick — it's never good to lay this many points early in the year when so much is unknown — but when I play this game out in my head, it's always the same.
New Orleans takes the opening kick, drives the field, and scores. Tampa Bay goes three-and-out against the Saints' solid defense. Saints score again. 14-0 in the first, everything is covered.
Ryan Fitzpatrick is pretty solid as far as backup quarterbacks go, but it would take an inspired effort to lead a team with such low expectations for 2018 into the Superdome and keep things close, let alone walk out with a victory.
Historically, these two teams have played each other close, but I have the Saints rolling here.
All that said, I remember how New Orleans stumbled out of the gate in 2017, and I am absolutely terrified I'm way off here, and the Buccaneers ruin my day. But it's not gambling without a bit of fear.
SuperContest Pick 4: New York Giants (+3) over Jacksonville Jaguars
The New York Giants will be eager to show off their new toy Saquon Barkley to the home crowd, and there's little doubt that Odell Beckham Jr. will want to show up against the Jaguars stellar secondary to show why he's worth every bit he just got paid.
After the Giants started off their preseason with an explosive handoff to Barkley that sent the crowd into hysterics, I expect them to open their regular season in a similar way. The Jaguars are by no means a pushover, but even after an AFC Championship appearance, I can't pass up the chance to bet against Blake Bortles as a road favorite.
SuperContest Pick 5: Houston Texans (+6.5) over New England Patriots
The scariest part of this play is that the New England Patriots are technically coming off of a loss, and there are few better trends in gambling than betting Bill Belichick won't lose twice in a row.
That said, this line is too high. The Texans are getting their two leaders back on the field, and facing a Patriots team that doesn't have two receivers most football fans can name. When these two met in Foxborough last year before Deshaun Watson's injury, the Texans kept things close and were just a play or two away from victory. The Patriots might still come out with the win in this game, but Houston and the points feel like the smart side of the action.
Eliminator Lock: New Orleans Saints
Most Eliminator rules are simple — choose one team a week to win outright, and if they win, you survive to the next week. But you can't pick that team for the remainder of the year.
Every week of an Eliminator pool is playing with fire. Upsets happen all the time in the NFL, and it feels like every year there's a few in the opening weeks that turn the league upside down.
I do think there's a chance that the Buccaneers come out and steal this game, but as some sort of karmic justice from the gambling gods against me, personally, for laying the points with the Saints in the SuperContest. But beyond that, I feel pretty good about the Saints defending home turf.
If you want to avoid my paranoia over Ryan Fitzpatrick ruining the day, the Buffalo Bills are starting Nathan Peterman on the road against Baltimore, so the Ravens are also a great option here.
Money Dog: Kansas City Chiefs (+150) over Los Angeles Chargers
With our Money Dogs, I'll be doing my best to scour the underdogs on the slate for an outright winner, so you can bet the moneyline and get some positive odds.
This week, I like the Chiefs to win outright against the Chargers at +150 odds. The Chargers have won just one of their past five season openers, while the Chiefs have won four of their past five. We joke about Andy Reid's tendency to mismanage the clock at critical moments but give the man an entire offseason to game plan, and he can come up with something special — you only have to look back to last season's upset of the Patriots for proof.
If you're asking why this game isn't in my SuperContest selections this week, my honest answer is that I locked my picks in before I took a closer look at this game. Live and learn.
Weekly Tease: Ravens (-1.5) and Vikings (-0.5)
Teasers give bettors the opportunity to move the lines of games while linking their outcomes together similar to a parlay. While there are many ways to run this permutation, this week we're taking a six-point, two-team teaser at -110 odds.
First, we're taking the Ravens down to just a 1.5-point favorite over the Peterman-led Bills in Baltimore. We're pairing that with the Vikings just needing to win outright against the 49ers in Kirk Cousins' debut. Bet $110 to win $100.
Monday Night Chaser: Rams @ Raiders Under 48.5
When Monday night comes around, bettors are usually either licking their wallet wounds after a rough week or riding the incredible high of a run of winners. Either way, we're tempted to put a bit more down on whichever game is going off that night.
While there are two games on Monday night for Week 1, my favorite play available after Sunday is the total of the Rams-Raiders game. Between the Return of Chucky and all the new faces for Los Angeles, it just feels like it'll be a sloppy night. The total has already dropped a bit, indicating action on the under, but 48.5 isn't a bad number for those looking to buy it.
And that's all folks! Best of luck out there in the first true gambling weekend of the season.
Happy Sundays.